Tuesday, August 3, 2004
Rads' Tournament Predictions
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(RADS) - Another year has come and gone and the 41st Annual Croatian tournament is just around the corner. For many of us, this tournament is the highlight of the year and 2004 looks to be the best tournament to date. The tournament draw took place on Sunday, August 1st and provided us with some interesting groups to say the least.
After years of decline with teams merging and folding, the tournament has actually grown in size in 2004! Gone is Ottawa Jadran who was a last minute no-show in 2003. However, in are two new teams from the United States - Chicago Hrvat and San Jose Croatia! San Jose connects the tournament again with the west coast for the first time since 1993 when Vancouver bolted and started it's own tournament.
Now onto the important matter, the predictions:
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Group A
Toronto Zagreb; Milton Velebit-Karlovac; Florida Croatia; Streetsville Dalmacija; St. Catherines Hrvat.
Toronto Zagreb was impressive as hosts last year and came away with a 4th place finish. This season the team is even better. They have been tearing up their RSL division and look poised to gain promotion to the OSL top flight. They are clearly the team to beat here and should easily win this group. Their main competition will come from Florida Croatia who has consistently qualified for the quarterfinals. Velebit-Karlovac is still in a rebuilding phase but could pose a problem for the top two. St. Catherine's and Dalmacija aren't getting past the group stage but they will hope to trip up some of the favourites. There's a chance that Florida could come away with a wild card but I'm only taking one team to get through.
WINNER - Toronto Zagreb.
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Group B
Oakville Livno; Windsor Croatia; Chicago Hrvat; Detroit Croatia; New York Hajduk.
Livno was the biggest story at the last two tournaments but for very different reasons. Two years ago they surprised many with an impressive third place finish. Last season they were one of the heavy favourites but got knocked out in the group phase without winning a game. Which Livno team will show up this year? On paper they may be the best team in this tournament but paper hardly wins you a title. Their main competition here will come from Windsor Croatia who's vastly improved this season and is looking to get back into the quarters after a number of years. The remaining three teams are the weakest teams from the U.S. and should not get passed the group stage. Then again, wasn't Greece supposed to lose every game at EURO 2004? Still, I'm sticking with the favourites.
WINNER - Oakville Livno.
WILD CARD - Windsor Croatia.
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Group C
Chicago CBP; Toronto Croatia; Hamilton Croatia; Norval Croatia; San Jose Croatia.
Each year the tournament provides us with a group of death - except for this year. For this is not a group of death my friends, this is a bloody massacre. Three-time defending champions Chicago CBP have been grouped with two-time runner-up Toronto Croatia. Combined, these two super-powers have won 21 of the 40 tournaments to date. Add to the mix a strong Hamilton Croatia side that has been tearing up their domestic league and were looking to make a splash at this tournament. Norval Croatia has lost some of their rising stars from last season but will still provide some strong competition.The biggest unknown is the newcomer from San Jose. From sources out in California, I have been informed that this team is very good. One thing is for sure, this team is not flying thousands of miles to lose in the first round. Anything could happen here and in the end, some very good teams will be going home much sooner than anticipated.
WINNER - Chicago CBP.
WILD CARD - San Jose Croatia.
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Group D
Cleveland Croatia; London Croatia; Chicago Zrinski; Sudbury Adria.
Cleveland was probably the most impressive team at the 2003 tournament. They lost in a shoot-out to eventual champs Chicago CBP but from most observers' accounts, they should have won the match. Their team may not be as good this season but Cleveland should have no problems steam-rolling through this group. London was a big surprise last year reaching the quarterfinals and could possibly be in the running for a wild-card. Chicago Zrinski and Sudbury Adria likely won't have any hope of advancing but they could ruin London's chances.
WINNER - Cleveland Croatia.
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Group E
Kitchener Hrvat; Milwaukee Orlovi; CSC Mississauga; Sault Ste. Marie Croatia.
This group is the most cut and dry of all of them. Two superpowers have been placed with two of the weakest teams in the tournament. Both Milwaukee and Kitchener have emerged as serious title contenders in recent years and will be glad with this grouping. CSC Mississauga is much improved and on the rise but they are still a few years away from contention. The hosts from Sault Ste. Marie are not fooling anyone and will be out faster than a fat kid on a Smartie. In the end, Kitchener and Milwaukee should easily beat the other two. After that, it's a matter of who wins the group and who gets the wild card. Regardless, both of these teams will be in the quarters.
WINNER - Milwaukee Orlovi. WILD CARD - Kitchener Hrvat.
So the quarterfinalists will be:
Toronto Zagreb, Oakville Livno, Windsor Croatia, Chicago CBP, San Jose Croatia, Cleveland Croatia, Milwaukee Orlovi and Kitchener Hrvat.
And the winner will be...CHICAGO CBP.
For the last two years, I have picked against this team only to be disappointed. So why fight it? If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Loncar may have been grouped in the toughest group in tournament history but that will just motivate him to bring an even more powerful line-up. He's the George Steinbrenner of Croatian soccer and will do everything in his power to ensure victory. The route to the final may be different, but in the end, the result will be the same.
Don't forget about Rads' dark horse...TORONTO ZAGREB - There are a good 7-8 teams with the talent to take down Chicago CBP but of all of them, Toronto Zagreb may be the most impressive. The addition of new players such as Tom Granic and Leo Marasovic has only bolstered this already strong line-up. Zagreb has been impressive in league play and will show that their success in 2003 was no fluke.
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